Polacy w swoim pożegnalnym meczu zmierzą się z Japonią. Po raz kolejny zostaliśmy zmuszeni przez naszych piłkarzy do przeżywania dobrze znanego scenariusza – mecz otwarcia, mecz o wszystko i mecz o honor. Na mistrzostwach w roku 2002 i 2006 honor obronić się udało. Zwycięstwa z USA i Kostaryką pozwoliły na delikatnie osłodzenie goryczy porażki. Tym razem nie spodziewam się równie pozytywnego zakończenia. Zapraszam na typy bukmacherskie oraz zapowiedź meczu Japonia – Polska.
Singiel Japonia – Polska Mundial 2018 28.06.2018r. godz. 16:00 Typ: X (Japonia wygra – zwrot) Kurs: 1.95 Stawka: 10/10 ⛔10 ![]() |
Singiel Japonia – Polska Mundial 2018 28.06.2018r. godz. 16:00 Typ: Polska powyżej 1,5 celnego strz. w 1 połowie Kurs: 1.77 Stawka: 10/10 ⛔10 ![]() |
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Mundial 2018 w wykonaniu Biało-Czerwonych jest istną katastrofą. W pierwszym meczu mieliśmy szanse na wyrwanie punktów, jednak nasze katastrofalne błędy w obronie dały zwycięstwo Senegalowi. Mecz ten, był zdaniem wielu kibiców i ekspertów najsłabszym ze wszystkich rozegranych na rosyjskich mistrzostwach. Wierzący w nasze odrodzenie podczas drugiego meczu srogo się zawiedli. Pokazaliśmy futbol tak toporny i niemrawy, że na tle reprezentacji Panamy, czy też Iraku wyglądaliśmy niczym zespół z klasy okręgowej. Nielogiczne decyzje Nawałki, błędy w doborze formacji i zawodników, brak skrzydeł, brak jakości, brak wszystkiego. Typy bukmacherskie zakładające zwycięstwo Polski w meczu z Japonią, grane będą chyba jedynie przez 100% ryzykantów i hazardzistów. Kursy wystawione przez Forbet są mimo tego dość wyrównane:
W futbolu może zmienić się w ciągu kilku dni naprawdę sporo, a wynikach spotkań często decyduje przypadek, uważam jednak, że trzeba wyleczyć się z niepoprawnego optymizmu i spoglądania na zespół Nawałki przez różowe okulary. Ostatnie dwa spotkania ukazały realny poziom tej drużyny. W starciu z Japonią szanse na wygraną są niewielkie.
Wcale nie było tak kolorowo
Wynik na Euro 2016 został osiągnięty dzięki bardzo dobrej grze obronnej całego zespołu. Był to główny czynnik decydujący o sukcesie. Po Euro coś się jednak popsuło – traciliśmy gole z Kazachstanem i Armenią, utrzymanie czystego konta graniczyło z cudem. Owszem, zdobywaliśmy dużo bramek i w ofensywie prezentowaliśmy się solidnie, jednak wysokie wyniki osiągane były często przeciwko drużynom przeciętnym, by nie powiedzieć słabym. Poniżej lista spotkań reprezentacji Polski z ostatnich 2 lat, uwzględnia ona jednak tylko mecze przeciwko reprezentacjom prezentującym poziom Mistrzostw Świata:
Polska – Dania 3:2
Dania – Polska 4:0
Polska – Urugwaj 0:0
Polska – Meksyk 0:1
Polska – Nigeria 0:1
Polska – Korea Płd 3:2
Polska – Chile 2:2
W spotkaniach tych zdołaliśmy odnieść jedynie 2 wymęczone zwycięstwa. Warto również dodać, że niektórzy z naszych rywali grali w rezerwowych składach. Ktoś może powiedzieć, że były to jedynie mecze towarzyskie i wynik w nich ma znaczenie drugorzędne. Znalazłoby się wiele przykładów obalających tą tezę, chociażby Szwajcaria, która od Euro we Francji rozegrała 20 spotkań i przegrała tylko jedno. Fakty są takie, że jesteśmy w tym momencie do bólu przeciętnym zespołem i jeśli błyskiem geniuszu nie wykazuje się Lewandowski, to zagrozić jest nam w stanie każdy poważniejszy przeciwnik.
Samurajowie nie odpuszczą
Japończycy nie powinni przegrać tego meczu. Nie tylko dlatego, że teoretycznie mogą jeszcze nie wejść do fazy pucharowej, ale również dlatego, że odpuszczanie nie leży w ich naturze. Zawodnicy pragną zrewanżować się za katastrofalny występ sprzed 4 lat i póki co wychodzi im to bardzo dobrze. Obserwując ich grę na tym mundialu można dojść do szybkiego wniosku – pod względem konstruowania akcji i operowania piłką Japonia przewyższa Polskę przynajmniej o klasę. Szybkość, wymienność pozycji, gra z pierwszej piłki, wizja – Azjaci posiadają wszystko to, czego brakowało w Rosji naszej reprezentacji. Ostatnimi pogromcami Japonii na mundialach były: Kolumbia, Wybrzeże Kości Słoniowej, Holandia i Brazylia. Chyba nikt nie ma wątpliwości, że zespoły te prezentowały wyższy poziom niż Biało-Czerwoni.
Polska – Japonia, stawka większa niż honor. https://t.co/g34mGnhNAF
— Michał Zachodny (@mzachodny) 27 czerwca 2018
Typy bukmacherskie i prognoza
Typy bukmacherskie na 1X powinny być dobrym rozwiązaniem na to spotkanie. Nasi zawodnicy chyba nie będą w stanie podnieść się po nokaucie z Kolumbią i w najlepszym wypadku uda im się wywalczyć remis. W związku z tym proponuję wybrać zakład remis ze zwrotem w przypadku zwycięstwa Japonii. Bukmacher Forbet oferuje na to zdarzenie całkiem niezły kurs 1.95. Japończycy dzisiaj nie będą się oszczędzać, a posiadana przez nich piłkarska jakość pozwoli im zdobyć chociaż 1 punkt i awansować do 1/8 finału. Polacy grający bez presji i tym razem spisani na straty mogą jednak pozytywnie zaskoczyć, dlatego też taka opcja wydaje mi się w tym meczu najbezpieczniejsza.
Zawsze wartym uwagi zakładem jest również typ na kartkę Jacka Góralskiego. Zawodnika tego opisywałem już przy okazji meczu z Kolumbią – łapie kartki często, gra agresywnie i bezpardonowo. Kurs 3.50 na kartkę dla Góralskiego oferuje Fortuna. To dobra opcja do zagrania za symboliczną stawkę. Zwłaszcza, że dzięki promocji happy hours kurs zakładu pomnoży się przez 1.14, co w efekcie dam nam rzeczywistą wartość kursową 3.99. Proponuję ten granie tego zakładu tylko za „drobniaki” – mecz może ułożyć się różnie, a typowanie zdarzeń tego typu obarczone jest bardzo dużym ryzykiem.
Kolejnym ciekawym zakładem jest typ na celne strzały Polaków w pierwszej połowie meczu. Z Senegalem i Kolumbią nasi zawodnicy nie oddali przed przerwą ani jednego celnego strzału. Myślę, że dziś za sprawą Lewandowskiego oraz być może Grosickiego ta statystyka się zmieni i pomimo słabej dyspozycji jakieś strzały w kierunku Japońskiej bramki zostaną oddane. Kurs na powyżej 1,5 celnego strzału Polaków w I połowie oferuje LV Bet. Zdarzenie to wycenione zostało na 1.77.
Przewidywane składy:
Polska: Łukasz Fabiański – Łukasz Piszczek, Kamil Glik, Jan Bednarek, Maciej Rybus – Kamil Grosicki, Grzegorz Krychowiak, Jacek Góralski, Rafał Kurzawa – Piotr Zieliński – Robert Lewandowski
Japonia: Eiji Kawashima – Hiroki Sakai, Maya Yoshida, Gen Shoji, Yuto Nagatomo – Makoto Hasebe, Gaku Shibasaki – Genki Haraguchi, Shinji Kagawa, Takashi Inui – Yuya Osako
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